Where this crash is in the cycle
The borrowed-money pile Total margin loans. Forced selling shrinks this pile — past crashes bottomed only after it fell into the green zone.
How much of the unwind is done?
Forced selling, day by day Shares brokers sold out of overdue accounts. Hollow bars: sales already locked in — overdue balances are auto-sold two days later.
Money waiting to be force-sold Overdue purchase balances. While this stays high, more forced selling is queued.
Signs the bottom is in
This crash next to every crash since 2010 Each line: the borrowed-money pile, day by day after the crash started. Dots mark the day the market actually bottomed.
What happened the last seven times
Every crash with forced selling since 2010 — how deep, how long, and when this tracker's all-clear came. ▼ the bottom · ▲ the all-clear signal.
Read this before acting on anything above
The machinerythe full instrument panel — state machine, technical charts, and the honest backtest
Where this crash sits price regime × leverage regime — the machine's full state, not a single number
State transitions this episode
Cash cushion — credit ÷ deposits margin debt relative to the cash defending it; the crash-eve reading was the worst of the cycle
KOSPI vs KOSDAQ margin — who has flushed % from each market's own pre-crash peak; KOSDAQ historically troughs first
Sixteen years of leverage and price crash episodes shaded; this is the calibration data
Reload z-score is today's credit change explainable by price action? z ≥ +1.5 in a deep drawdown = leveraged dip-buying — a veto against any “stabilized” read
Deposits — the fuel that defends margin calls falling deposits in a selloff = money leaving the market, the grind signature
The record — how these signals did in past flushes leave-one-out backtest at frozen thresholds; shown so you can judge the tool, not trust it
Context that isn't in the daily data
What this tracker can and cannot see